Volcanoes - Can We Predict Volcanic Eruptions?

A Volcano is an opening, or rupture, in a planet's surface or crust, which allows hot magma, volcanic ash and gases to escape from below the surface. Volcanoes are generally found where tectonic plates are diverging or converging. Magma is molten rock within the Earth's crust. When magma erupts through the earth's surface it is called lava. 

The map below shows the divergent plate boundaries and recent sub aerial volcanoes.

After I did some online research about volcanoes, I was amazed by the destructive power of mother earth. Every time a volcano erupts, human activities will be interrupted and a great number of economic damage will be caused. It may cause injuries or deaths. 

The questions was raised long time ago: can we predict when a volcano will erupt?


Scientists can often find clues about past eruptions by studying the deposits left behind. Areas affected by lava flows, debris flows, or pyroclastic flows can be mapped, making disaster planning more effective. In addition to these long-range forecasting, scientists are becoming more and more skilled at spotting the warning signs of the eruption. 

Before an eruption, magma moves into the area beneath the volcano and as it comes closer to the surface, the magma releases gases. Animal and bird movements, melting snow-caps, and crate lakes drying up, all these events could be monitored as the warning sign of volcano eruption. However, more efficient and effective detection methods related to the inner workings of an active volcano have been developed. The most common of these instruments are tiltmeters and seismographs that are used to measure the ground swell produced by the strain of the magma pushing its way to the surface before an eruption, as well as the vibrations in the earth. 

As up to today, volcanic eruptions can not be predicted by stochastic methods, but not by catching early symptoms before an eruption. Therefore, continuous monitoring even of dormant volcanoes, though costly, is the only way to enable eruptive behavior forecasts. Many countries operate volcano observations at a lesser level of funding. Volcanic activity prediction has not been perfected, but significant progress has been made in recent decades. I'll keep in touch with the latest progress of volcanic eruption prediction and I'm looking forward to seeing the day when we are able to predict every single volcanic eruption so that we could minimize the loss.

Immigration in Singapore

Have been living in Singapore for 2 years, I've met a great number of Chinese immigrants as well as immigrants from other countries, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar. After studying the "Population Geography" chapter this term, I was always wondering the current status of foreign immigration in Singapore.


Spanning 42 kilometers from east to west and 23 kilometers north to south, Singapore is a small yet densely populated city. According to the SingStat (Department of Statistics of Singapore), the population has reached 5.076 million as of the year 2010, including 3.2 million of Singapore Citizens, and 0.541 million Permanent Residents.  

According to the 2009 United Nations Development Report, Singapore has the highest immigration rate in Asia Pacific after Hong Kong. Migrants make up 35% of the population in Singapore. Singapore has a long history of encouraging foreign workers and so most of the problems of relocating and settling in have already been anticipated and solved. 

There are two major reasons behind the high immigration rate in Singapore as well as the government policy on immigration: low TFR and competition in attracting highly skilled immigrants.

A landmark study on future population growth and change for Singapore was published earlier this month, states that Singapore's resident population will decline and become extremely aged if the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is extremely low and if there is no immigration. The study said with TFR at 1.24 births per woman and zero net immigration, Singapore's population will decline to 3.03 million in 2050. Even if Singapore's total fertility rate rises from the current 1.15 to 1.85, the total population will decline, without immigration. The number of working people available to support elderly person is also set to drop. The study also projected the number of young people under 14 years of age will go down by more than half from 699,000 in 2005 to 274,400 by 2050.

The immigration debate is becoming more often in many countries especially the US, UK and Australia. The anti-foreigner sentiment, capping the the number of immigrants and making it harder to obtain a worker visa, all these tougher immigration rules are driving out highly skilled immigrants and discouraging foreign talents from building their careers and businesses in those countries. At the same time, Singapore is adopting a much opener style in facing the competition of foreign talents. Mr. Lee Hisen Loong, the Prime Minister, commented on the importance of staying open to foreign talent: "Because we need talent, we need to gain talent. It makes a tremendous difference to us doing critical work in our economy, helping Singapore to become an outstanding city...We need reinforcements to grow our economy and create better jobs for Singaporeans. The foreign workers supplement our ranks and enable us to build successful companies."

As a foreign student myself, I appreciate Singapore government's effort in welcoming foreign talent. I hope that after my graduation, I could work here and contribute to the economy.

Deforestation in China

Can you imagine that maybe one day in future, the pandas in the above picture will not have their forest to live in?

After taking "Deforestation in Kalimantan" as the topic of my group presentation this term, I was surprised to find out the current deforestation status in Kalimantan. Therefore I'm very interested to study the deforestation in China. 

I've found the below picture which shows the greening map of China shot from a satellite. It clearly shows that the north-western China is facing very serious deforestation problem. 

According to the National Greening Commission, forest coverage had increased to 18.6% last year, comparing to 12% two decades ago. The increase was largely due to the recent reforestation efforts. The trees are immature and the quality of forest is low. If you travel in the west of China, you would easily encounter entire hillsides where the timber has been razed to the ground, as shown in the below pictures. 

China introduced a logging ban in 1999 after rampant tree cutting had been blamed for soil erosion and severe flooding along the Yangtze River. During the last five years, Chinese loggers annually exceeded logging quotas by an average of 75 million cubic meters.


Following a logging quota system and widespread domestic logging bans in the late 1990s, China's rising demand for imported wood and wood products has been seen as a driving force behind destructive timber cutting in neighboring countries, according to environmental groups such as Greenpeace. According to the forestry administration, China legally imported more than 30 million cubic meters of timber in 2011.


A widespread flooding has struck northern regions of China August last year. On Aug 7 2010, the rainstorm has loosened the mud and rock that buried and killed more than 1,000 people in Zhouqu, in the north-western China province of Gansu.

The scientists said, the mudslide was caused by geology, but it was worsen by deforestation. The disaster has brought that summer's nationwide death toll from floods and landslides to more than 3,000, which was the highest number in a decade.

Fortunately more and more people have realized the challenging situation we are facing today and more people are posing a question. It was discussed at length during the National People's Congress in Beijing few months ago, particularly by specialists in the advisory body which meets at the same time. There are encouraging signs of a greater understanding on the need to plant and maintain trees on a long-term basis. After all, tree planting has deep roots in Chinese culture. 

I'll use the below ads to end this blog. The four Chinese characters shown in the picture mean - forest, woods, wood, "a cross". It warns people that deforestation will lead to destructive environment where no one could survive in the end.